Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
